Consumer staples stocks are significantly outperforming the S&P 500 by 13 percentage points year-to-date while the index remains near all-time highs. Historically, this pattern has preceded 10-20% market corrections, suggesting the S&P 500 is vulnerable to a pullback as investors shift to defensive sectors amid concerns about tech valuations and labor market health.
The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's tariff authority under the IEEPA, ruling that Congress alone holds the power to impose tariffs during peacetime. Trump responded by unveiling a new 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 and confirmed existing Section 232 and 301 tariffs remain in effect. Meanwhile, weak economic data showed U.S. GDP growth at just 1.4% in Q4, while inflation accelerated to 3% annually, and the trade deficit remained essentially unchanged at $901 billion for 2025.
U.S. stock futures rose on Friday ahead of Q4 GDP data and PCE inflation gauge releases. Markets are pricing in a 94% likelihood of unchanged Fed rates in March. Notable movers include Copart missing earnings expectations, Comfort Systems raising dividends, Grail plunging 47% on weak earnings, Candel Therapeutics declining on stock offering announcement, and Dropbox falling despite beating earnings. Wells Fargo strategist recommends leaning into growth-sensitive sectors like Financials and Industrials rather than defensive positioning.
Microsoft has become the worst-performing stock among the Magnificent Seven in 2026, down 17% year-to-date and underperforming the S&P 500 by over 30% since August 2025—its worst relative performance since 2000. The selloff is driven by concerns over aggressive capital expenditures ($37.5B quarterly capex), slower Azure growth (39% vs. 40% prior quarter), and weak Copilot adoption (15M seats vs. expectations). Intensifying competition from Google, OpenAI, and smaller AI startups threatens Microsoft's productivity software dominance. However, with a forward P/E of 22.0 and projected 17.1% earnings growth, the valuation appears attractive if Microsoft can convert capex into durable revenue growth.
U.S. stock futures declined on Thursday as escalating US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices higher and the Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes revealed disagreements on interest rates. Despite market expectations for two rate cuts by year-end, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 94% probability of unchanged rates in March. Key stocks in focus include DoorDash (up on positive guidance), eBay (up on strong earnings and Depop acquisition), and Walmart (down ahead of earnings).
Hidden Lake Asset Management LP initiated a new position in Upstart Holdings, purchasing 316,586 shares worth approximately $13.84 million on February 17, 2026. The purchase makes Upstart the fund's fifth-largest holding at 3.5% of AUM. Despite the stock being down 61.2% over the past year, the investment signals confidence in Upstart's AI-driven lending platform and its potential to disrupt the credit assessment market dominated by Fair Isaac's decades-old FICO score.
Roundhill Investments announced the launch of the Roundhill S&P 500® Target 10 Managed Distribution ETF (TPAY), an actively-managed ETF designed to provide monthly distributions at a 10% annualized rate while maintaining exposure to the S&P 500 Index. The fund targets investors seeking regular income while retaining equity market participation.
U.S. stock futures rose on Wednesday with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 all posting gains. Investors await January FOMC minutes and Friday's PCE index release. Key movers include Ovintiv surging 4.17% after announcing a $3 billion asset sale, Tactile Systems jumping 23.53% on strong guidance, Celanese rising 5.94% despite earnings miss, and Palo Alto Networks falling 7.34% after lowering profit guidance.
After 14 years of U.S. equity dominance, a significant shift is occurring in 2025. U.S. stocks (SPY) have underperformed global ex-U.S. stocks (ACWX) by roughly 25 percentage points, with ACWX up 40% versus SPY's 15% gain. A rare technical 'death cross' pattern has emerged in the SPY/ACWX ratio for the first time since 2018, suggesting a potential structural shift in global equity leadership as investors rebalance away from the crowded U.S. market toward emerging markets like South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, and Taiwan.
Massive AI capital expenditures by tech giants are causing investor concerns about margin compression, triggering a selloff in mega-cap tech stocks and a rotation into smaller companies positioned as AI enablers. While some large-cap software firms with strong moats remain resilient, smaller companies in semiconductors, infrastructure, and AI application commercialization are emerging as potential winners in the shifting market landscape.
Economist Mohamed El-Erian warns of a major structural shift in global finance as China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries plummet to a 15-year low of 7% (down from 28% peak), totaling approximately $682.6 billion. The retreat reflects China's de-risking strategy amid geopolitical tensions, with Beijing pivoting toward gold and other hard assets. This raises concerns about future demand for American debt and potential pressure on U.S. borrowing costs as traditional Treasury buyers retreat.
U.S. stock futures showed mixed performance on Friday ahead of January CPI data. Tri Pointe Homes surged 25.79% following a strategic combination announcement with Sumitomo Forestry. Roku jumped 13.70% after beating earnings expectations, while Expedia dropped 4.97% despite beating estimates due to muted 2026 margin guidance. Markets are pricing a 92.1% probability of unchanged Fed rates in March.
Emerging markets are significantly outperforming the S&P 500, with IEMG returning 44% over the past 12 months compared to SPY's lower returns. The rally is driven by broad country leadership and strong relative strength rather than just dollar weakness. Technical analysis suggests further upside potential, with price targets around $98 for IEMG, though near-term calendar risks and potential headwinds from rising interest rates and currency movements warrant caution.
U.S. stock futures rose on Thursday following a strong January jobs report showing 130,000 jobs added, exceeding expectations. The report dampened rate cut expectations, with markets pricing in only a 6% chance of a March rate cut. Key movers include Micron (up 3.3%), Novocure (up 33% on FDA approval), and Fastly (up 43% on strong earnings), while AppLovin fell 4.95% despite beating expectations.
Analysis of Nasdaq 100 seasonality patterns in mid-term election years suggests the index bottomed on February 6 and is staging a rally toward a March 18 peak, after which a significant decline is expected through October. Using Elliott Wave Principle combined with seasonal trends, the analyst projects an upside target around $26,608 in the near term, followed by a multi-month correction.
Golub Capital announced the expansion of its Broadly Syndicated Loan (BSL) CLO strategy to Europe, appointing Tyler Wallace as managing director to lead the initiative. The expansion aims to meet growing demand from European partners and leverages the firm's successful U.S. CLO platform. As of December 31, 2025, Golub Capital managed over $14 billion in broadly syndicated loans and achieved record securitizations of $24.4 billion in 2025, maintaining its position as the No. 1 U.S. CLO manager.
U.S. stock futures rose on Tuesday as investors await delayed economic data including retail sales and employment costs. Major indices showed modest gains with the S&P 500 up 0.18% and Nasdaq 100 up 0.15%. Key movers included Credo Technology jumping 16.89% on strong earnings guidance, Oracle rising 1.47% after launching new AI agents, and Clear Channel Outdoor advancing 6.85% following a $6.2 billion acquisition agreement. Analysts maintain a constructive outlook on the global economy with expectations for continued AI investment and emerging market outperformance.
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President Trump acknowledged that his 2017 decision to pass over Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve Chair was a 'really big mistake,' attributing it to pressure from former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Trump has now nominated Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell when his term expires in May 2026. The nomination has jolted global markets, with Warsh expected to deliver rate cuts and streamline banking regulations. Trump also reiterated attacks on Powell over a $2.5 billion Federal Reserve headquarters renovation project currently under DOJ investigation.
U.S. stock futures declined on Monday following Friday's record close, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 all trading lower in premarket. Key movers include STMicroelectronics jumping on an AWS deal, Kroger gaining on CEO speculation, and FedEx rising after announcing the InPost acquisition. Strategy Inc. continued falling after reporting a massive $12.4 billion net loss. Asian markets closed higher, while the Fed is expected to hold rates steady in March.
The article compares two large-cap ETFs: SPY (S&P 500 tracker) and MGK (mega-cap growth focused). MGK offers slightly lower fees and stronger 5-year returns (+16% vs +14.4%), but carries higher volatility and deeper drawdowns (-36% vs -24.5%). SPY provides broader diversification across 503 holdings with better dividend yield (1% vs 0.4%), while MGK concentrates on 69 growth stocks heavily weighted toward technology (55%). SPY suits conservative investors seeking stability and income, while MGK appeals to growth-focused investors willing to accept higher risk.
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